Depth | What are the trends behind the Double 11 gold war?
2022-11-07
Zhiyi Technology
The 2022 Double 11 is coming as scheduled.
After 14 years of changes in the mentality of group consumption, this annual e-commerce event, praised by Daniel Zhang as "the grand parade of commerce and the business Olympics of all China", has subtly become a traditional program like the Spring Festival Gala on Chinese New Year's Eve, taking root in the hearts of Chinese.
According to the recent official report of the garment industry, we learned:
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Double 11 was sold for 1 hour, and more than 2,000 clothing brands were traded more than last year's whole day;
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More than 300 brands of women's clothing were traded in the first hour, an increase of more than 300% year-on-year;
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More than 400 brands exceeded last year's full day in the first hour, of which more than 9 percent were domestic brands.
So subdivided into the specific men's and women's wear industry, how is the pre-sale performance of Double 11? What pattern does it show?
Zhiyi Technology will be近3年来女装、男装两大行业的天猫双11预售数据As an observation sample, we will discover and explore new trends with the majority of apparel practitioners.
从24日的预售首日排行榜来看，我们注意到The pre-sale performance of many brands of men's clothing is better than that of women's clothingThe number of first-day bookings for "GAP", "Semir" and "CHINISM" all exceeded the top 1 women's clothing and led the other 7 menswear brands.
According to the information officially disclosed by Tmall, the first-hour pre-sale transaction of "GAP" increased by more than 200% year-on-year.Jasmine Chen, head of GAP e-commerce operations, also revealed: "We put the heaviest top-notch goods on Tmall Double 11 for the first time, which is to take a fancy to Tmall's business certainty."
In fact, combined with the first-day pre-sale ranking of Zhiyi Technology statistics, the author foundThe TOP10 rankings show a trend of the Matthew effect that the stronger the stronger, that is, the head brand is far ahead, this phenomenon is inThe 11.11 pre-sale event showed the huge potential of the leading menswear brands to attract money。
But if you dig deeper againThe pre-sale index of Zhiyi, which is strongly correlated with pre-sale sales, the author finds that:
1. There is only 1 Tmall women's clothing that exceeds 10,000, although there are many mid-waist brands, only 40 have a pre-sale index of more than 1,000, and the brand index of the TOP50 is 615.3
2. Tmall men's wear has a total of three brands with a pre-sale index of more than 10,000, but the number of middle-waist enterprises is not as good as that of women's clothing, only 28 of them have a pre-sale index of more than 1,000, and the brand index of the top 50 is 337.5;
It can be seen that although the highest value and TOP10 average value of women's clothing on the first day of pre-sale are not as good as men's clothing, the stability of middle-waist enterprises is better than that of men's clothing.
Based on the first wave of pre-sale men's and women's clothing store rankings from 24 to 31, Zhiyi Technology noticed that the sales performance was slightly different from the first day of pre-sale, among which the most eye-catching was "Bosideng", which topped the pre-sale sales index of men's and women's clothing respectively. In the data performance on the first day of pre-sale, Bosideng ranked 9th in women's wear and 14th in men's wear at that time.
The difference between the two lists is also reflected in the fact that it is slightly better than the men's clothing on the first day of pre-sale.After the final payment event, the pre-sale sales of women's clothing stores surpassed that of men's clothing, and opened a large gap。
Zhiyi Technology also counted the average value of the TOP10 of the two rankings, and on the whole, the sales of the women's clothing industry still occupy the largest share of the market, while the men's clothing industry is in a relatively weak environment, and the head effect is becoming more and more obvious.
Based on the ranking data in the two lists, we have a general understanding of the pre-sale sales of the men's and women's clothing industry during the Double 11 in 2022, especially the down jacket category represented by "Bosideng".
当知衣科技回顾盘点2020-2022近三年的双11预售数据，发现羽绒服品类一直是男女装中销售额占比最高的品类, and basically maintained at more than 25%, and women's woolen jackets, men's sweatshirts opened a large gap.
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On the other hand, as a must-have item in winter under the expectation of cold winter, although the down jacket category sells well all year round Double 11, its预售销售额占比却呈现出逐年降低的趋势，尤其是女装。
At the same time, women's woolen jackets, woolen knitwear, short coats, men's knitwear/sweaters, cotton clothes, woolen coats and other categories have increased significantly in recent years.
Considering the influencing factors of the high unit price of down jackets, Zhiyi Technology took the TOP10 pre-sale sales of men's and women's clothing and the year-on-year growth as a reference, and found that women's down jackets are still the first in pre-sale sales, but the lead is not obvious, and there is not much difference with the second wool knitwear;The pre-sale sales of men's clothing were surpassed by the sweatshirt category, and leads with nearly 25%.
In addition, it can be seen from the year-on-year growth trend女装休闲裤、短外套是少数呈同比上升的服装品类，而女装羽绒服、牛仔裤和皮草的降幅却达到了-50%左右。
Pre-sales of men's clothing increased year-on-year, with the exception of cotton clothes and woolen coats, which fell within -5%, and the rest were all below -15%.
Recently, an Internet celebrity e-commerce women's clothing boss admitted to the author that he told the truth about the changes in the clothing industry in recent years: "其实不是现在的生意（流量）变难了，而是以前的生意（流量）太好做。”
no doubt双11对“人货场”的颠覆性重构，给中国电商带来了超乎想象的能量，甚至说改写了中国互联网进程也不为pass。
However, when Double 11 develops to its 14th year, its growth rate will inevitably slow down, after all, with the improvement of infrastructure, the rise and involution of new ways to play such as festivals, tens of billions of subsidies, and live streaming, whether it is Alibaba, JD.com, or new forces such as Douyin and Pinduoduo, it is becoming more and more difficult to tell new stories.
如人饮水，冷暖自知的大环境里，有人声讨“2015年，淘宝的获客成本就涨到了200多元，现在有的甚至飙升到了千元级别”，有人“一直以来把天猫作为品牌运营的主阵地，从7月份就开始进行货品盘点，同时针对工厂也进行了生产线优化。”
All these perceptions have become more intense in the uncertain market environment of the post-pandemic era。一个高端女装品牌的电商运营总监告诉笔者，他们正在计划慢慢退出各大平台的大促活动，哪怕牺牲短期销售量，也要按自己的节奏来进行长线的粉丝运营，希望引起质变。但目前最大的顾虑是如何让公司接受短期销售额的下浮。
On the other hand, the famous racing driver Elton Senna once said: "你不能在晴天超过15辆车，但在下雨天你可以。 "Uncertainty is sometimes the unexpected, a testing ground for entrepreneurs to incubate great businesses through deterministic planning.
How to find certainty?
双11作为China's largest existing shopping festival with the highest attention and the largest traffic, is one of them, and there are othersThe most important asset born in the Internet era is data。
In 2016, Waseda University professor Hiroharu Mitani mentioned in his book "The Complete History of Business Models" that the apparel industry is more risky than the automotive industry and the PC industry.Because the internal design and production chain in the garment industry has never been able to catch up with the changes in external fashion trends.There is a serious information asymmetry between buyers and sellers, which will directly drag down a large and medium-sized clothing brand。
In the era of digital economy, everything can be digitized.
虽然数据本身具备的价值有限，但学会如何更好地分析与利用大数据赋能行业，挖掘善变的时尚趋势才是关键。当我们所掌握的大量数据堆积到一起时，Eliminate the decision-making risk caused by uncertainty as much as possible,Quantitative change can lead to qualitative change.
Data is a more certain cause and effect than Double 11，It is the key to delegating the "choice of life and death" to each enterprise in this era, a subject that all enterprises have to learn, and a key step to determine the direction of fate.
And now,Innovative enterprises represented by Zhiyi Technology are helping the apparel industry find the vitality and change opportunities hidden under the "cold winter" through the certainty of big data。
Scan the QR code below or click on the lower right corner "Request a demo”，即刻Get双11销售分析数据报告（如下图）to find more certainty factors in the apparel industry!
